Schrödinger's Finalists

Since hearing my story was in the finals, I've had some sort of strange writing block. Instead of thinking about my next story(or writing it), I find myself easily distracted. It seeps into my dreams. On the up side, I was surprised by the number of well-wishing, not only from among the fellow finalists, but from other writers, and from those with no aspirations to write(those seem most satisfying of all).

In obsessing over my odds, I've created a fiction of sorts, backed by spurious calculations to help me sort it all out. In essence, eight stories sit in Schrödinger's Box, each in a superposition of states. When a measurement is made, by judging, then the superposition will collapse.

While, perhaps, there may be one Hugo-worthy story(not mine, obviously) that will outshine the rest, until it is measured--we don't know. And there is the likelihood that several are equal in quality and it might come down to subjective taste or even mood. Of course, professional writers are doing the judging, and as Gurney Halleck in Dune said, 'Moods are a thing for cattle and love play!' Obviously, they won't let traffic jams and finicky cats cloud their judgment.

The point is there is great uncertainty. But it is sane to keep in mind that there are a finite number of states the superposition can collapse into, accompanied by its own set of odds:

59.03% : Nonwinning, nonpublished finalist
03.46% : Nonwinning, published Finalist
37.50% : Third place
25.00% : Second place
12.50% : First place
03.10% : Gold

Discounting published finalists, there are 56 winning groups that could emerge from the quarter(if you include who-wins-what that would up it to 168 combinations). Pick from the 56 and there's only a 1.79% chance for that combination. The odds of any two, say two Virginians, both winning are 10.7%. But the good news is that that odds for a Virginian to win this year are 64.3%.

How will the superposition collapse? We will have to wait and see.

To be continued...